Although scientists cannot predict earthquakes, they do know where they are more likely to occur. By measuring ground movements, they are able to indicate the likelihood and probability of them occurring by evaluating the increasing and decreasing risk associated with an area. Earthquakes cannot be prevented from happening. The goal of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) is to allow enough warning to minimize the loss of life and property. Scientists evaluate the probability of an earthquake in two ways: studying the history of large earthquakes in a specific area and measuring the rate at which strain accumulates in the rock (USGS, n.d.).
By studying a specific area, scientists are able to predict an earthquake occurring based on information that has been recorded and documented over several years. The problem with this type of prediction is the uncertainty with which earthquakes are based on, tectonic plate movement. Although a scientist may be able to predict that there is a fifty percent likelihood that an earthquake will occur in an area if four magnitude 6 earthquakes have occurred in the last two hundred years, it is just as likely that it won't happen. When earthquakes occur along a fault system, it can trigger other earthquakes in another area. When the pressure is released, it can increase at another point (USGS, n.d.).
When strain builds in the rock, they can suddenly break and slip into a new position. Scientists are able to measure this by documenting the amount of strain that builds over a year, the last earthquake that occurred in the area along the fault, and how much strain was released with the earthquake. This method is not as common since it requires a great deal of accurate recordings. The San Andreas Fault is the only place in the United States that scientists have been able to accomplish this type of prediction.
Both methods are being used and studied further at the San Andreas Fault. This research has provided a great amount of information with the hope that, as the population grows and more people are overflowing into earthquake prone areas of the world, precautions can be made to preserve life and property.
By studying a specific area, scientists are able to predict an earthquake occurring based on information that has been recorded and documented over several years. The problem with this type of prediction is the uncertainty with which earthquakes are based on, tectonic plate movement. Although a scientist may be able to predict that there is a fifty percent likelihood that an earthquake will occur in an area if four magnitude 6 earthquakes have occurred in the last two hundred years, it is just as likely that it won't happen. When earthquakes occur along a fault system, it can trigger other earthquakes in another area. When the pressure is released, it can increase at another point (USGS, n.d.).
When strain builds in the rock, they can suddenly break and slip into a new position. Scientists are able to measure this by documenting the amount of strain that builds over a year, the last earthquake that occurred in the area along the fault, and how much strain was released with the earthquake. This method is not as common since it requires a great deal of accurate recordings. The San Andreas Fault is the only place in the United States that scientists have been able to accomplish this type of prediction.
Both methods are being used and studied further at the San Andreas Fault. This research has provided a great amount of information with the hope that, as the population grows and more people are overflowing into earthquake prone areas of the world, precautions can be made to preserve life and property.